Jeff's Blog

Have you noticed—regardless of whether you lean left, right, or somewhere in between—that a surprising number of public officials no longer strike us as the sharpest minds in the room? Some seem proudly unversed in basic policy, some treat fact-checking as optional, and a few appear to view elective office as little more than a stage for showmanship. Some mornings, the headlines read less like coverage of a functioning government in DC and more like a cafeteria food-fight report from the local middle school, complete with taunting and name-calling.  That uneasy sense—“How did that candidate get the job?”—isn’t just dinner-table grumbling. It points to a deeper shift in the nation’s reasoning skills, one that shows up in hard data and may explain why campaigns built on slogans and spectacle so often out­perform those built on sober analysis. The decline permeates the whole system, thinning the talent pool from which parties draw their candidates and dulling the judgment of the vote...

A Personal Case Study A few months ago, I found myself doubled over with severe stomach cramps. Naturally, I turned to my primary care physician for answers. After a quick visit, I was told I needed to see a gastroenterologist—but the earliest appointment was in November, a full seven months away. It was late March, and I was in pain now . Frustrated but determined, I decided to try something unconventional: I consulted ChatGPT. I shared every detail with ChatGPT—excruciating stomach cramps, bloating, discomfort, my hiatal hernia, a decade on Nexium for GERD, even my daily diet. After some back-and-forth, it pinpointed a condition I’d never heard of: Small Intestinal Bacterial Overgrowth (SIBO). It suggested a low FODMAP (Fermentable Oligosaccharides, Disaccharides, Monosaccharides, and Polyols) diet, which cuts carbs that feed gut bacteria. I was clueless about it and devastated to learn it banned most of my favorite foods. But ChatGPT became my lifeline. Using the app on my phone, I ...

Your next Walmart run might hit hard. The U.S. has imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, with China retaliating at 125%, poised to drive up costs for clothes, appliances, and more. A sudden reprieve on April 12, 2025, exempted electronics—$127 billion worth, nearly a third of Chinese imports—keeping phones and PCs affordable for now. But with most goods under heavy tariffs, and President Trump pushing hard while Xi Jinping eyes Taiwan, fears mount that this trade war could spiral. Soaring prices could squeeze American wallets dry, or worse, spark a Taiwan conflict. The bond market, now jittery at a 4.5% yield, hints at what’s coming. Could Trump’s bold moves bankrupt consumers and ignite chaos, or does he have leverage that would mean there is a smarter deal that lies ahead? What’s driving this, and what’s next for your wallet and the world? And how much leverage does Mr. Trump really have over China? How Trade Fuels Debt—and Your Costs World trade is a giant web, and the U.S. sits ...

What do you think of when you see this picture?  The image serves almost as a political Rorschach test.  To one observer, the flames perhaps represents Mr. Trump setting a badly needed fire to the previous (Biden) administration and its governing approach, who were (in their view) chaotic, reckless people driven by a 'woke' ideology rather than evidence-based logic. To another, the same image  might symbolize the current government of Donald Trump and his administration—a flaming disaster characterized (in their view) by chaotic, reckless people and driven more by impulsive ideology than evidence-based logic.  These starkly different interpretations highlight a critical reality: ideology eclipses an analytical approach for determining policy in today's polarized political environment. In fact, ideology often overshadows evidence-based governance, reasoned analysis, and even our shared sense of reality. At first glance, the Trump administration’s actions since J...

  Comparative Advantage, Tariffs, and Why I Pay My Barber I keep hearing on the news that the U.S. has a massive trade deficit. Politicians insist this is terrible for our economy. They say we need huge tariffs on imported goods, that we must manufacture everything here at home, and stop buying so much from other countries. But recently, I noticed something interesting in my own life that seems directly related: I have a massive trade deficit with my barber—and things are working out pretty well for both of us. Every few weeks, I pay my barber to cut my hair. Yet she never buys anything from me—not engineering expertise, not a mandolin lesson—nothing at all. If the government tracked my haircuts the way it measures international trade, they’d say I’m getting ripped off, and my barber is getting rich. So why don't I "protect" myself and eliminate this unfair deficit? I suppose I could start cutting my own hair. But trust me—you don't want to see the results. I’d ...

Have you ever wondered how ChatGPT consistently delivers highly relevant information, witty responses, and extremely creative ideas on demand, as if it were an exceptionally knowledgeable and intelligent human being? The secret lies in its intricate inner workings, which enable it to process, analyze, and generate text in a way that closely resembles human speech patterns. In this blog post, we will explore the technology behind ChatGPT, examining the architecture and foundational elements that make it a remarkable and transformative tool. Undoubtedly, ChatGPT and other Large Language Model (LLM)-based programs involve a high level of complexity, with advanced mathematical concepts like linear algebra, matrix manipulations, and differential calculus powering their algorithms. This blog post is designed to present these concepts in an accessible manner, allowing curious readers without an extensive background in computer science or mathematics to grasp the fundamentals and gain a solid...