Jeff's Blog

Some folks think that the "statue thing" is a very straightforward matter.  It is simply dead wrong to remove statues.  They embody not only our heritage but our national history, and if we erase history we are doomed to repeat it. Others feel that it is just as clear that the statues must go.  These folks think that people venerated by these statues committed treason (for example, by fighting the union and supporting slavery), and they should come down.  Right now. I think that they are both wrong.   The "statue thing" is neither simple or clear. For example, my great, great, great, great grandfather 'owned' over 600 enslaved people.  And there is a big bronze statue of him that sits in a domed, colonnaded, neoclassical Pantheon right on the tidal basin.  Yep, that tidal basin, in Washington DC.   Do we really want to tear down the statue of Thomas Jefferson?   Well, he also wrote the Declaration of Independence, one of the co...

In a previous blog post, I documented a way of approximating the risk of encountering an individual that is contageous with Covid, given the size of the crowd you will expect to be with.  I provided statistics for the community of Cecil County, MD, which is where I live. I have had requests to add in additional communities, and the purpose of this post is to be a repository for those charts. As of today, in this blog post, I am including: Cecil County, MD New York City, NY York County, PA Orange County, NC Deschutes County, OR Chittenden County, VT Navajo County, AZ Palm Beach County, FL 6/29 Updated: Cecil County, MD New York City, NY Palm Beach County, FL 6/30 Updated York County, PA Orange County, NC Chittenden County, VT Deschutes County, OR You can check back in this blog post for updates.  I'll try to keep these updated as time permits.   Note that I've also added county-wide and state-wide trends at the bottom of each chart, which also are very important to f...

Apparently I have a strong preference for white people over black people.  Anyway, that is what the test that I just took says.  It's called the Implicit Association Test (IAT), from Harvard University. Imagine my dismay when I got the result. By the way, you should take it too:  click here  (make sure you select "Race IAT" on the second page).  Behavioral scientists call this effect  Implicit Bias .  It is pervasive.  It is impactful.   It is like we are a fish and not even aware of the water we are swimming in.  In fact we probably don't think that we are even swimming in water.   Here is a table showing over 3,000,000 test results - from the same test that I took. All of these folks (me included, apparently) are making day to day decisions that are probably biased.  Unconsciously biased.   Whom to promote.  Whom to give a business opportunity.  Whom to give that stock tip.  A police officer...

You've looked at the graph from my last blog post ( click here ) and decided that maybe taking a 10 or 20% chance of being in a crowd with one or more infectious people is OK with you. You decide to go out with your buddies. At this point you might ask, "What else can I do to reduce the risk of getting the virus?" It will help to have a little background on how viruses are transmitted. If you can keep this in mind, you can probably pretty much totally avoid getting sick.  How Viruses are Transmitted There are six different ways that viruses can be transmitted between humans, according to epidemiologists (see the appendix for a list). For the Coronavirus, there are three that we have to worry about: Direct human to human contact Contaminated surfaces (fomites) Transmission through the air:  Droplets and aerosols You already know how to control the first two.   Don't kiss, shake hands or hug, avoid touching your face, wash your hands frequently with soap and water...

"Well, I have had enough of the lockdown, and I want to go out with some buddies. Are there going to be any infectious people there?" Good question. You will probably want to find out the answer to this question before going out to join a group of friends in this new Covid-19 world.  Or to a restaurant.  Or a party. Especially now that we know at least 40% of the people carrying the virus are asymptomatic ( Reference 1 ) ( Reference 2 ). Finding a definite answer to this question is, of course, impossible.  But we can make a good estimate with the help of a little bit of logic and statistics. Estimating Prevalence First we have to estimate the percentage of infectious people in our state.  The details are in the appendix but as of today, June 17, 2020, in the state of Maryland, my best estimate is: 1 person out of 114 is infectious (0.88%) OK, that is good to know.   So if I stay in crowds smaller than 114 people does that mean I'm safe? Well, no....

Does it ever feel like the more you practice the worse you get on your instrument? Or perhaps it seems like you're on a learning plateau and despite a ton of effort you just can't improve. How about not practicing at all for a while and you find you've definitely gotten better in the interim? I've experienced all of this, at different times, of course.  And it can be confusing.  It certainly doesn't encourage one to practice! Let's decompose this so we can understand what might be happening. Analysis When you are picking a tune with your friends, there are really two things happening inside your brain simultaneously: Execution - the process of creating (or calling up from memory) musical phrases and then translating them into a series of muscle contractions that produce the notes.  Listening - the process of hearing what you are playing and comparing it to how it is supposed to sound in context. You probably didn't think of these as separate things. When y...

Defund the Police? Are you confused?  Yes? So am I. People have asked me how I feel about the "Defunding the Police" cause.  I don't even know how to answer the question. People on the right say that this movement wants to get rid of the police force and that leads to anarchy. People on the left tell me it doesn't actually mean getting rid of the police.  Instead the movement is about diverting funds to additional professional resources that are better trained than police to handle deescalation, non-violent crisis interventions and the like. OK this really is confusing. Maybe they have the wrong name for the movement.   Let's first check the dictionary for the word "defund" - here is how Oxford defines it: So, the phrase "Defund the Police" would literally mean:   prevent the police from continuing to receive funds.   Hmmm.  That's funny.  The folks on the left that I talked to said it doesn't mean getting rid of the police. But acc...

"I'm a Disney Democrat, and I'm voting for Mickey Mouse" "Well I'm a Warner Bros Republican, and I'm voting for the Road Runner" "OK I refuse to even talk to you anymore, how could you even think about voting for that criminal?  That bird continuously teased and abused Wile E Coyote and that is an unethical treatment of an endangered species!"  "Yeah? Well that evil SOB Wile E Coyote was always trying to torture and kill the Road Runner.  Mickey would never even think of doing that.  How could Warner Brothers advocate that kind of violence?  I'm not going to talk to you either!" One of the things about people is we all have very different ways of looking at things.  It seems to be a part of being human - something big happens (like an election) and everybody has a different take. Historically, this ingrained diversity of thought in humans has probably ensured the survival of our species in an ever changing world. You could alw...

I have very strong feelings about Donald Trump (although I'm NOT going to say whether these are positive or negative feelings for him*). My feelings are much stronger than I've ever had, for any other president, or for any elected official in my lifetime.   And, at this point, I'm not open to persuasion.  There is absolutely nothing that you can tell me that will cause me to change my mind. Not this time. I was given some advice earlier tonight after discussing my feelings for Donald Trump with a close friend, that I should just get out on Facebook and blast away.  "This is important, the future of our country is at stake" I was told.  "Show some leadership."  "Make a difference!"   Here is why I didn't follow my friend's advice:   From what I can tell, there isn't anybody that is open to persuasion - i.e. nobody is in the "undecided" category.  There isn't even anybody in the "I (don't) like him but I could ...

Here is something we all should be saying: Black Lives Matter (BLM) Should I post this on Facebook, I'd expect an immediate reply. All Lives Matter (ALM) Followed by someone else weighing in: ALM is a racist slogan, it means you are a racist by disavowing bad things happening to blacks. Followed by again, someone else: BLM is a racist slogan, it means you are a racist by thinking that White Lives Don't Matter  There are various ways of trying to avoiding this catch-22: Pretty clear, right?  Logical, disarming, all the right things.  Guess what, it didn't work.  Here is part of the resulting conversation on a friend's Facebook page after he posted this picture: This is a classic rhetorical trap.  There really is no way out of it (that I can see).   Sadly, it is going to take a very long time for everyone to realize that black lives really do matter, and that they should be given more attention at this point in time. Analysis There are three elements tha...