Jeff's Blog

A video of what appears to be a very passionate, articulate and esteemed physician has been making the rounds recently. Surrounded by about 10 other medical professionals in white coats, she made an impassioned plea that Hydroxycholoroquine (HCQ), a malaria drug, really does cure severely ill Covid-19 patients. She made a very convincing case for the drug: 350 patients under her care in a major hospital in Houston.  All cured.   Why is the 'establishment' trying to slow things down with double blind studies, which take forever, when people are dying???  We can save lives by using it now. HCQ + a Z-pack.  It works.  She knows.  She is on the front line every day, curing people of Covid. However, I have recently heard that HCQ is unsafe, and not really effective.  And it seems really politicized too.   How is a thinking, caring person supposed to reconcile this video with conflicting news from other sources? The Bayesian Approach Well, let...

Where is everybody? This question was famously asked by the physicist Enrico Fermi in 1950. He and a couple of colleagues were having a lunchtime conversation at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico about UFOs and aliens.  There are 250 billion or so stars in our galaxy, each possibly having planets. With that many potential planets, why aren't we inundated with aliens? So where is everybody? Dr. Fermi's lunchtime observation anticipates an important cosmological equation which was written by Frank Drake some 11 years later.   Dr. Drake's reasoning in 1961 led him to document what is now eponymously known as the Drake Equation.  (Ed. note - I have always wanted to gratuitously use the word eponymously in a sentence.) The Drake Equation (see appendix) calculates the probable number of intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy.  And if you plug in some reasonable guesses for inputs into the equation, it tells you there is probably life ...

Herd immunity for Covid!  This term is frequently bandied about in the news. It basically means that enough of the population has gotten immune to the virus (either through recovering from it or getting a vaccine) that any new infections will quickly die out instead of spread. Epidemiologists have estimated herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) to be right around 60% or so.  Once 60% of us are immune to Covid, the rest of us are protected because the 40% remaining is not enough fuel for the virus to continue to burn through the population. Herd immunity is a function of how fast the virus can spread.  The term that specifies the spreadability of the virus is called Basic Reproduction Number or R(0) (you can learn more about this in the appendix if you are interested). Masks and other interventions that slow the virus down will reduce R(0).   The question is, by how much. I.E., how many people will have to wear masks (and how effective do ...

Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification. LAMP for short. That is a mouthful, but you might just name-drop it at your next Zoom cocktail hour. I recently came across LAMP, reading a pre-print published just last month from Columbia University, and it certainly caught my attention. It looks to me like LAMP may make it possible for you to go out with your friends and party at your favorite pub sometime soon.  In person. Or attend a medium-sized concert or sporting event. Or maybe even go back to school, or get on an airplane. Safely. Before a vaccine for Covid-19 is available. Here is how LAMP will let you party As you pull into the parking lot, an attendant gives you a tiny little vial (after charging a small fee on your credit card).  You spit into it, seal it and hand it back along with your cell phone number.  The attendant snaps a photo of you and then directs you to your parking space. You sit in your car and wait. 15 minutes later you get a text saying you are approve...

Well, when WILL things get back to normal? Lots of folks have recently asked me to weigh in on that. It's complicated. It is not going to happen all of the sudden.  Like, say, turning on a light switch just as soon as we get a vaccine or an effective therapeutic. In fact, we are going to be living with the consequences of Covid-19 for quite some time, while things gradually improve. But it will get worse before it starts getting better. That is my prediction, anyway. My rationale?   There are a combination of factors - some good and some bad -  that will impact us in our immediate future...  Factors that will produce a very rocky and turbulent period of 12-18 months (maybe more) for us. First, the Good News Here are a few of the positive things about our current situation (supporting references are hyperlinked): Medical professionals have recently learned quite a bit about how to treat people with Covid-19 and will discover even better therapeutic practices...

President Trump was correct about one thing.  We need to send the kids back to school in the fall. But it is unbelievably negligent for him to suggest doing so without a plan to contain the virus. Let's look at the data: According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, children represent 8.2% of all available Covid-19 cases in the state of Maryland ( Reference ) There is little doubt about the contagiousness of these kids, especially in an indoor environment where aerosol transmission predominates.   I did a quick statistical analysis: On July 9, Maryland had 463 positive test cases (7-day moving average positivity rate was 5.2%) ( reference ).  Using the above assumptions for case rate of children and Maryland's July 9 test numbers, a school containing 600 students will have a 79% chance of having at least one contagious student.   If Maryland reaches the virus prevalence levels that we had back in April again, that same school will have a 93% chance of c...

Some folks (including two of my cousins ) have argued that we need to remove the statue of Jefferson from the Jefferson Memorial in Washington.   Others have said the George Washington statues need to go too.   Both Washington and Jefferson were slaveholders, after all. And while we're at it, let's rename Washington DC. Many of you who have been reading this column might anticipate that I'd be supportive of such moves.   Well, I'm not.  Here's why. Every nation needs an enduring and inspiring national myth.  An uplifting and rousing narrative, an encouraging set of anecdotes that give us purpose.  A saga about a nation's past.  A story we all know by heart, one that affirms our identity as Americans.  And many of these figures who are up for 'cancellation' are essential parts of our national myth.  It is surely a fact that Thomas Jefferson and George Washington, both pivotal characters in America's historical narrative, are unq...

"Do you think DJT is a racist?" Based on how this question is answered, just about anyone can predict a person's views on a variety of unrelated issues including: Gun rights and second amendment Right to an abortion Gay marriage and LGBTQ rights Global warming Black lives matter and police defunding Confederate statues Is the economy doing well Should people wear masks Maybe this person won't be aligned on every one of these issues 100% of the time, but the correlation is very high for most people. Think about this for a moment. Each of these are highly complex issues, every single one has a vastly different set of assumptions and none of them have clear answers. And even though none of these issues has anything to do with each other, people are pretty much choosing a set of responses that are highly correlated with one another.  For example: If John supports the right to an abortion, he probably wants to tighten up gun control.  And he almost certainly thinks DJT is ...