Jeff's Blog

Here is an observation that Yogi Berra might make if he were alive today:  Nobody watches cable news anymore, it is far too popular. Whether we admit it or not, many of us get our news from popular sources, including FOX, CNN, MSNBC and even Facebook and Twitter.  It seems like we all get drawn into their worlds whenever we feel like we need to catch up. When we tune in, we quickly get fully engaged... and fully enraged too! (Especially if what is being reported strikes a chord that fits our preferred narrative.)  And whatever is reported always reinforces our very cynical and angry view of the world.  These days, everyone seems to be pissed off!  Could it be cable news?  Maybe Facebook and Twitter?  The president? Kenosha Many of you know that last week was a rough one in Kenosha, Wisconsin.  One person (Jacob Blake) was shot seven times by police officers (leaving him paralyzed from the waste down) and two people later lost their lives in a p...

I grew up in the '60s in small town America.  There was that big house on the corner right down the street - the one with the mansard roof that people said was haunted.  Inside was a cranky old gentleman living alone, everybody was afraid of him. All us kids thought he killed his wife and children with a rusty axe (but we knew that wasn't really true).  Of course we did cross over to the other side of the street when we had to walk past the house. Everybody in town knew stories from the old man.  He told Roger down at the barbershop that there was a pedaphile ring in town.  The guys down at Stanley's Newsstand said he had an off the wall theory that our state's senior US senator was a satan worshiper who drank blood from victims of the pediphile ring.  And the waitress down at Elkton Diner overheard him talking about an evil cabal controlling the state legislature.   My conclusion growing up was that the elderly gentleman was the only one who was ...

We lived in Columbia, South Carolina back in the mid-'90s.  It was a wonderful place with a large, friendly bluegrass music community in a city with lots of vibrant, southern culture and a rich history. In the 1990s, the newly constructed State Museum in Columbia was the centerpiece of the tourist district.  It had a phenomenal American history section.  Included were excellent exhibits on the French and Indian Wars and the Revolutionary War right through wars that were fought in the 20th Century.   There was one weird thing though.  There was absolutely no mention of the Civil War.  The Civil War was the one major historical event that had the most impact on the city of Columbia and the state of South Carolina - and not one word about it in the State museum.   There was no mention of Sherman marching through town and burning it to the ground.  Not a word was said about the the secession of South Carolina (the first state to do so)....

Ed note 8/12/20 11:30am:  Based on feedback from my readers here is an important clarification:  This blog post refers to a situation of an individual Covid-19 test case and what the inferences are regarding a positive result when the prevalence of infection is relatively small.   Infection rates at the population level (e.g. state or nation level reporting) are:  Based on an entirely different set of assumptions and are unaffected by the phenomenon reported herein.   Press reports of Covid infections are likely under-reported by a factor of at least 6X - meaning if the press reports 5 million infections in the US the real number is probably greater than 30 million.   In addition, I'd like to re-emphasize that if you get a positive test result you need to behave as if there is 100% chance that you have Covid-19 - and isolate for a 14 day period .  You are asymptomatic and just got tested for Covid-19.  It came back positive. ...

Our world has been kept safe from nuclear destruction since 1945 mainly because the risk is symmetrical.  You launch your warheads and we will launch ours.  We will be mutually destroyed.  So let's not do that. Symmetric risk means stability on the world stage. Asymmetric risk, on the other hand, is much more dangerous and destabilizing.  That's when one nation acquires the ability to inflict death and destruction on a country that cannot fully retaliate on the same scale as the instigating nation. And, currently, there is a brand new asymmetric risk right in front of our noses: We have recently demonstrated, visibly, to the world, that America is fundamentally unable to respond effectively to a highly contagious respiratory virus.  This is due to the preponderance of people that will defend 'constitutional rights' to choose not to follow medical directives (such as wearing masks).  Further, many Americans are suspicious of expert advice and are unlikely to...