A Pair of Razors to Help Cut Through all the Misinformation

It is difficult to know what to believe anymore.  

For example, you may have seen this type of thing on Facebook: 

Bill Gates has something to do with the Coronavirus, and is going to include a "chip' in mandatory vaccines (which he has patents on) and will make a ton of money from it.

People start to think:  Hmmm that kind of makes sense.
  • Bill Gates - patents - sure that fits... I'll bet he has a bunch of them.  
  • Windows is evil, it took over the world and we all suffer with blue screens and didn't Microsoft get hauled into court and found guilty of being a monopoly? - yep, Gates is probably evil too.  
  • Everyone suspects that billionaires like Gates are not only malicious but greedy too and they always want more money. 
  • Bill Gates is an investor in that Biosecurity Level 4 virology lab over in Wuhan, isn't that true?
  • Gates is always talking about viruses and vaccines. He is NOT a microbiologist but IS a microcomputer specialist. That makes no sense, there must be something else going on here.  Microchips as part of a vaccine that can track you.  Yeah, that kind of fits...
And before you know it, folks will be reposting that and getting a ton of "likes."  And I don't blame them either, that all kind of makes sense - more sense than anything you might hear from the mainstream media (MSM) these days.

Let's take a closer look at this, but first, I want to describe a pair of razors. You might already know about them.  They are called Hanlon's Razor and Occam's Razor.

Hanlon's Razor
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" - this aphorism is perhaps a more memorable version of the more generalized "principle of charity."  

Hanlon's razor seems to come up countless times in everyday life, especially when attributing motive to other drivers on the road.  Perhaps they just don't know how to drive and didn't intend to cut you off...

Occam's Razor
Also called "the Law of Parsimony," this theory gives precedence to simplicity.  Given two explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest of the two is usually the correct one.  It is not always true, but Occam's Razor should always be given consideration.

One of the most famous examples of Occam's Razor is explaining the retrograde motion of the outer planets - you can read more about that here and here.

Let's revisit the hypothesis that was posted on Facebook with these two "razors" in mind:

Bill Gates has something to do with the Coronavirus, and is going to "chip' us with mandatory vaccines (which he has patents on) and will make a ton of money from it.

Applying Hanlon's Razor:  Let's assume Bill Gates is not evil or malicious but some of his past behavior was stupid and maybe he was even unkind to people, which accounts for his reputation.  For example:
  • Microsoft had an unfair monopoly for years, effectively forcing people to use their products (which were rushed to market by Gates and were full of bugs).  This is probably not the smartest business strategy for endearing long lasting trust from the public.  
  • Early on in Bill's career, he could be petulant and abusive - this was on full display as he defended Microsoft's monopolistic practices to Congress back in 1998.  
Perhaps Mr. Gates deserves this bad reputation from years ago but there is good evidence that he has matured tremendously over the years (hopefully, we all have!). He is on the record for doing as much good has he can with his billions - giving it away to causes that include public health and education.

Applying Occam's Razor: An alternate explanation is that Bill Gates has made a career change after leaving Microsoft and is spending his billions trying to cure diseases of the world.  
  • The new explanation would explain any patents and investments in companies and therapies involved with vaccines and viruses.   
  • If the explanation (above) is true, it would be tough to explain why, or how Bill Gates would "sneak" a chip into a vaccine.  The vaccine will be administered world wide, almost certainly by several different companies.  How many different governments and companies would have to conspire on this?  Is it even possible?  What would they achieve by this and who would coordinate this in every country of the world?   Could they keep it a secret?
  • The new explanation would also make it unlikely that Mr. Gates' motivation is greed (see also: Hanlon's Razor).
Bill Gates' career change is well documented, as is his philanthropy.  This is the simplest and most straightforward explanation of his actions and behavior - including his investments and patents.   The original Facebook post appears to be overly complex and highly unlikely.

The level of uncertainty is at an all time high right now.  There is plenty to be suspicious out there, and many folks don't trust relying on main stream media for information.  If you apply these two "razors" before coming to a conclusion, it might help.

BTW, you are all carrying a "chip" around with you now ... it is in your cellphone and it tracks you everywhere that you go and what you do.  And, all those posts on Facebook when you check in somewhere? Those are just as good if not better than a chip because you are also recording your reactions and thoughts.  Furthermore, Facebook compiles, analyses and sells the results of your posts to anyone who will pay for them. Including the Chinese and the Russians.  

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Image
  Comparative Advantage, Tariffs, and Why I Pay My Barber I keep hearing on the news that the U.S. has a massive trade deficit. Politicians insist this is terrible for our economy. They say we need huge tariffs on imported goods, that we must manufacture everything here at home, and stop buying so much from other countries. But recently, I noticed something interesting in my own life that seems directly related: I have a massive trade deficit with my barber—and things are working out pretty well for both of us. Every few weeks, I pay my barber to cut my hair. Yet she never buys anything from me—not engineering expertise, not a mandolin lesson—nothing at all. If the government tracked my haircuts the way it measures international trade, they’d say I’m getting ripped off, and my barber is getting rich. So why don't I "protect" myself and eliminate this unfair deficit? I suppose I could start cutting my own hair. But trust me—you don't want to see the results. I’d ...
Read more

Will Tariffs Jack Up Your Bills and Push the World to the Brink?

Image
Your next Walmart run might hit hard. The U.S. has imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, with China retaliating at 125%, poised to drive up costs for clothes, appliances, and more. A sudden reprieve on April 12, 2025, exempted electronics—$127 billion worth, nearly a third of Chinese imports—keeping phones and PCs affordable for now. But with most goods under heavy tariffs, and President Trump pushing hard while Xi Jinping eyes Taiwan, fears mount that this trade war could spiral. Soaring prices could squeeze American wallets dry, or worse, spark a Taiwan conflict. The bond market, now jittery at a 4.5% yield, hints at what’s coming. Could Trump’s bold moves bankrupt consumers and ignite chaos, or does he have leverage that would mean there is a smarter deal that lies ahead? What’s driving this, and what’s next for your wallet and the world? And how much leverage does Mr. Trump really have over China? How Trade Fuels Debt—and Your Costs World trade is a giant web, and the U.S. sits ...
Read more

America’s Ideological Dumpster Fire

Image
What do you think of when you see this picture?  The image serves almost as a political Rorschach test.  To one observer, the flames perhaps represents Mr. Trump setting a badly needed fire to the previous (Biden) administration and its governing approach, who were (in their view) chaotic, reckless people driven by a 'woke' ideology rather than evidence-based logic. To another, the same image  might symbolize the current government of Donald Trump and his administration—a flaming disaster characterized (in their view) by chaotic, reckless people and driven more by impulsive ideology than evidence-based logic.  These starkly different interpretations highlight a critical reality: ideology eclipses an analytical approach for determining policy in today's polarized political environment. In fact, ideology often overshadows evidence-based governance, reasoned analysis, and even our shared sense of reality. At first glance, the Trump administration’s actions since J...
Read more