The World's Most Powerful Person

Seven years ago today, Kim Jong-Un's uncle (#2 in North Korea) was forcibly removed by state security in the middle of a meeting with high level party leadership, and executed several days later by firing squad.  

His crime?  Stating publicly that he thinks economic development should take priority over the military.  

Mr. Kim evidently disagreed.

Note that not one person in the entire cadre of North Korean party leadership objected.

Today, December 8, 2020, also marks one full month after Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump at the polls by more than 6 million votes.  Mr Trump continues to challenge the election with ballsy, highly public maneuvers (court challenges, fraud allegations, appeals to state leaders to change the electoral college vote, etc.) that stand absolutely no chance of succeeding. 

And, as of today, December 8, 2020, the vast majority (222 out of 249) of Republican members of the US House and Senate (including leaders such as Mitch McConnell) have not said a word about Biden's win or the unusual and destructive behavior of Mr. Trump. 

What do these two scenarios have in common?  They both stem from a behaviour that social scientists call Preference Falsification (which you can read about in the box below).  The entire body of North Korean party leadership - as well as 222 of our United States GOP congressmen and women - are keeping mum regarding their respective predicaments.  This is despite the obvious conclusion that their personal preference and views on these matters are probably quite different than what their actions indicate.  In another words, they are falsifying their (personal) preferences for political (and/or actual) survival.

Preference Falsification

Preference falsification is providing active and public support to someone or something that you don't actually believe in. 
  • It could be as innocuous as complementing the boss' haircut right after you've had a good laugh about it with colleagues at the coffee machine.  
  • Maybe you don't really like your wife's new dress but she seems so excited about it that you compliment her choice in clothing at the cocktail party in front of all her friends.
If you'd like to know more about Preference Falsification:
  • I highly recommend listening to the episode of the popular NPR podcast "Hidden Brain" called "A Conspiracy of Silence" - this goes into depth with an interview with Mr. Kuran.

Consolidating Power thru Preference Falsification

When you see preference falsification in an interaction, there is almost always power at stake.

In the case of Kim Jong-Un, the power stemmed from the demonstration that no matter how small the disagreement, and no matter how high your party rank was, the consequences of actually stating your dissent publicly with Kim could be fatal.  

Kim's action of publicly executing his uncle over a (seemingly) small matter demonstrated and consolidated his power over the party.  Nobody was coming to the uncle's rescue; it is therefore a pointless and dangerous task to challenge anything Kim says so you better keep your mouth shut.  The fact that it was a small matter and the individual was a very high level official made the power grab even more poignant and effective. 

In fact, the Dear Leader could have absolutely no clothes on, and yet there you are, a high party official complementing his taste in attire.

In Donald Trump's case, preference falsification is also at work, and this gives a good indication that his immense power base is still thriving.  Here the implied threat is political survival.  The Donald has demonstrated numerous times that lack of support on the part of any Republican elected official will result in embarrassment (at the least) or perhaps even the end of one's political career (see box below).

Keeping Republicans In Line 

Donald Trump has brilliantly and yet maliciously applied tools of political manipulation with impunity during his term.  The result is his absolute control over Republicans and Republican leadership in both branches of Congress.  Here are a few of the many levers that he has used to gain power
  • Donald Trump's source of power comes directly from 74M quite enthusiastic and highly engaged people that voted for him in 2020.  In addition, he has raised a war chest of $200M (and counting) since the election - this money mostly goes into his PAC (and can be used for a broad set of purposes).  
  • The threat of Mr. Trump taking his followers and his money and forming a new party is quite real, should Mitch McConnell (and other Republicans) not follow his direction. This new "Bull Moose" party could very well float red state challenges in the 2022 midterm and be a credible threat to the 2024 presidential contest.
  • One of the other biggest threats to a Republican House (or Senate) member is getting "primary-ed" by the Donald.  Mr. Trump had a 21 - 2 win record for his primary endorsements in battleground contests in 2020.  He has also brought careers of incumbent Republicans to an end by endorsing a primary challenge - most famously in the case of Mark Sanford (there are others as well).
  • John McCain was not a supporter of the president. In fact, his single vote in the senate kept the motion (backed by Trump) to kill the affordable care act from passing.  In response, Donald Trump famously disparaged John McCain's status as a war hero because he was taken prisoner.  Given that the love for McCain is indigenous and widespread within the Republican party (and beyond), this disparagement is arguably the Western equivalent of executing Kim's uncle.  
  • A mere mention in Donald Trump's twitter feed will be blasted to his 80+M followers and can result in a ruined career.  For example, in 2016, when then-candidate Ted Cruz slighted the Donald, the result was a not-so-favorable photographic comparison of his wife Heidi Cruz with Melania.  Although this has certainly not ended Mr Cruz' career, it was highly embarrassing and demonstrated that nothing is off limits for the Donald.

The Most Powerful Person

Even though Donald Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, an argument can be made that Trump's connection with his voters is far more sustainable and direct than Biden's.  His influence over his party is bigger, his power base is stronger, and his influence will be longer lasting.
  • Donald Trump's strategy of not conceding the election - and threatening punishment to any Republican who doesn't follow along - is turning out to be a good one.  He continues to raise lots of money every week and will probably do so for the foreseeable future.
  • His continual challenge of the election, no matter how sisyphean it might appear,  keeps him "above the fold" in the newspapers and continually in the headlines for cable news.  The more egregious his actions are, the bigger the headline and the more engaged (and enraged) his followers become.  My prediction is that this won't stop until January 20 (if even then).
  • Donald Trump will effectively set up a "government in exile" at Mar A Lago in 2021 and will continually have reasons to stay in the press.  (In fact, if the rumors are true, he will "own" the press by starting his own cable news network.) If he is indicted after he leaves office for any of his financial (or other) actions, it will serve to keep him in the headlines, maintain rage in his base and the money will continue to flow into his PAC. 
  • Biden won the election by primarily being "not Trump."  In 2020, the threat of a second term for Trump united some strange bedfellows: the progressive far left and the moderate democrats.  Once in office, Biden is likely to disappoint progressives with moderate stances (or alienate moderates with progressive decisions) dividing the democrats in 2021, perhaps permanently.  Note that Trump's Republican party is far more homogeneous - and unified.
  • The prospect of Trump being re-elected in 2024 is real (especially given the lack of homogeneity in the Democratic party) and will hang over both the Republican party and Biden's administration. For example, Biden's foreign policy is likely to be hindered as US allies won't trust any agreements he might try to make since the threat of Trump being elected in 2024 implies that any commitments could be quickly overturned in the next administration.
  • Trump is currently undermining Biden's ability to do his job.  A messy and incomplete transition will open up security holes, prevent coherent response to the virus and many other things.  He is hastily executing actions that are hard to undue such as pulling troops prematurely out of Afghanistan (and other actions as well).
As hard as it is to believe, we are not finished with Donald Trump.  There will be bigger and noiser rallys, and more egregious statements and actions. He'll run again in 2024, and stands an excellent chance of winning.  

Or maybe it will be Ivanka.  

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