What's Next for Trump

In 2021, for the first time ever, the United States Congress and the President of the United States may not hold 100% of the power to govern.

How can this happen?

Well, I am 100% sure that Joe Biden will be sworn in as President on January 20, 2021, and that a new 117th Congress of the United States will be seated a few weeks earlier, on January 3rd.  

And that Donald Trump will retire to Mar A Lago.

However, once he arrives in Florida, Mr. Trump will be in an excellent position to continue with his highly disruptive but extremely effective approach to politics and governing (without actually being President).  

While sitting in Mar A Lago, Mr. Trump will:

  • Be able to significantly influence, slow down and/or propose new Congressional legislation in Washington DC
  • Have a meaningful impact on law making and policy within red states  
  • Remain as a kingmaker for the Republican party, dramatically impacting the careers of elected officials
  • Continue with an undiminished power in shaping the perceptions of a plurality of American voters

In another words, Donald Trump will effectively be heading a government in exile.

Mar A Lago:  Government in Exile?

And over time, that government in exile is likely to grow in power and influence.

Further, it is conceivable that the threat of secession is put on the table for the first time in 160 years. 

In this post, I will describe how I think Donald Trump can achieve all of the above, and how I believe things will roll out over the next couple of years. 

(For an explanation of how Mr. Trump's immense leverage over elected officials works, and why so many Republicans have not supported Biden's victory, see my last blog post.)

The Election of 2020

Donald Trump always suspected he couldn't win this election. 

But he knew he had the power to delegitimize it.

And, quite apparently, he is succeeding.

According to a recent YouGov poll, there are currently 79% of Trump voters (74% of Republicans) that doubt the legitimacy of the election.  This has been validated by similar results from polls by Quinnipiac and others.

This is almost certainly the result of Mr. Trump failing to concede that Mr. Biden won the election and to the almost constant tweeting and messaging from the President about voting fraud and the illegitimacy of mail-in balloting.  In addition, the vast majority of congressional Republicans and other high level Republican elected officials are going along with Mr. Trump and this has further marginalized the election's validity.  

Furthermore, although none of the subsequent lawsuits launched by Trump were successful in the courts, they overachieved in their objective of throwing doubt into the election results.  

As did Trump's most recent move of setting up the state of Texas to bring (an unsuccessful) lawsuit to try to overturn election results in five states. 

Other important objectives were achieved by the President's approach post-election:

  • Trump kept himself in the headlines and constantly on cable news - often higher priority than all other news including Covid
  •  He kept his base engaged and enraged. This will be critical in the next phases (see below)
  • The money kept flowing in - Trump's post-election strategy has netted over $200M in his PAC (so far) since the election
This is the all an important setup for what I think will happen next, starting in 2021.

2021

Here are a few things that I think will happen in 2021:
  • Rallys!  More rallys!  Expect record attendance (if they can survive Covid mask-free).  Also expect incessant beating of the drum that the 2020 election was a fraud.
  • Expect Mr. Trump to maintain above-the-fold coverage in the press and on cable news.  He undoubtedly already has a few egregious tricks up his sleeve that the press will gobble up - the more out of the ordinary the better.  Remember this is a win-win for Fox news and even for the liberal press. The more Donald does, the more eyeballs get glued to the screens and the more advertising dollars flow in to the networks.
  • Trump will likely start his own cable news network. This will allow him to control the message even tighter. The competition (CNN, Fox, MSNBC) will have no choice to cover his events as well so there will be no drop off in coverage.
  • Reporters will have round-the-clock coverage at Mar A Logo and effectively be the government-in-exile's press corps.  Trump will want equal coverage.  Any news events will feature coverage at Mar A Logo with commentary / statements from The Donald - who will spin these events to his advantage (especially any police killings or BLM protests or confederate monument stories - the material is almost endless).
  • Ongoing donations from his base will continue to add to his coffers.  
  • Any indictments against him in state or federal court will be viewed by the Trump camp as good news as they will generate more headlines and more people donating to his PAC.  Any attempt to collect the ~$400M he owes to Deutsche Bank (and others) will result in headlines... expect this to get drawn out.
  • Prep for 2022 primaries.  Donald will exercise his muscle in carefully picking out and supporting 2022 mid-term election candidates.  Any Republican member of Congress who didn't support him during the court challenges or acknowledged Joe Biden's win could be "primary-ed" by The Donald.  Key state elections will be involved as well.
  • Mr. Trump will start to exercise power over the legislature in both houses of Congress by making his stance known on certain bills.  Any Republican legislator that refuses to go along could be primary-ed in 2022 or subjected to a career-ending tweet to 80+M constituents.  Note that in red states, Trump will probably continue to out-poll each of these lawmakers in their own districts, giving him immense power.
  • If the Republican leadership in Congress refuses to go along with Trump, expect him to form a new "bull-moose" party. Unlike Teddy Roosevelt's attempt a century ago, this new party is likely going to be successful and could have $400M or more in the bank and the attention of 74M+ voters.  This implied threat will keep Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy in line.  You might even see them building frequent flyer miles going back and forth between Washington DC and Mar A Lago in 2021 and 2022.
The net of all this will be a softening of the power of the government in Washington.  Foreign leaders will start to wonder about commitments made by the U.S. and whether they will hold beyond 2024.  A plurality of the voters has already been "taught" that the 2020 election was invalid, they will continue to lose faith in their elected representatives.  

Future Years

Some possibilities here:
  • The Republicans (or Trump's "Bull Moose" party if he abandons the Republicans) could gain a majority in the House and /or maintain the Senate in 2022.  If enough of these legislators preserve their fealty to Trump, he would effectively have control of Congress.  Very little would get passed (in anticipation of the 2024 election).
  • Foreign government officials could pay increasing visits to Mar A Lago.  Note that this borders on being illegal but Trump knows how to skirt the law and there is plenty of ambiguity here.  
  • Rallys and fundraising will certainly continue during 2022 and beyond, and Trump could raise quite a bit of money.
  • Trump certainly intends to run in 2024 and, if Biden disappoints the far left part of the Democratic party with policy choices, the vote could be split in Trump's favor.  The Republicans could be far more unified than the Democrats in 2024.
  • Threat of secession by several or most of the red states certainly could be one of the tools used by Donald Trump in future years - he clearly has power over Republican state officials (as demonstrated by Texas' recent lawsuit).  This would also be a great headline and serve to keep Donald Trump in the press.  I would not be surprised at all to see Trump orchestrate such a threat in 2021 or 2022.
  • Actual secession by red states is highly unlikely and I don't think will happen. Note that the topic of possible secession by red states has been explored in a recent book by David French called Divided We Fall - highly recommended if you are interested in exploring this topic.  He presents several scenarios on how succession could possibly happen.
In any case, I believe that 2021 will likely be a rough ride politically.  Hopefully Joe Biden is successful at calming the storm and setting a more quiescent tone.  However I suspect that people will remain glued to their computer and TV screens and still yelling at each other over Facebook.  

Hang on to your hat we're in for another loop around the roller coaster.




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